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Systems Modelling in Systems Thinking

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This curriculum spans the breadth of a multi-workshop organizational modeling initiative, covering the technical, social, and governance aspects of building and deploying systems models in real-world decision-making contexts.

Module 1: Foundations of Systems Thinking and Modelling

  • Selecting between hard and soft systems methodologies based on stakeholder consensus and problem ambiguity in organizational redesign initiatives.
  • Defining system boundaries when modeling interdepartmental workflows, balancing comprehensiveness with model manageability.
  • Choosing causal loop diagrams versus stock-and-flow models based on whether feedback dynamics or accumulation behaviors are central to the issue.
  • Documenting mental models of key stakeholders to expose assumptions before constructing formal system representations.
  • Deciding when to model qualitative influences (e.g., trust, morale) as semi-quantitative variables in feedback loops.
  • Establishing model purpose early—whether for insight, prediction, or stakeholder alignment—to guide modeling depth and validation criteria.

Module 2: Problem Structuring and Stakeholder Engagement

  • Facilitating cross-functional workshops using rich pictures to capture divergent views of a supply chain disruption.
  • Mapping power and interest of stakeholders to determine whose mental models require formal integration into the system diagram.
  • Resolving conflicting problem definitions among departments by co-creating a shared problem statement before modeling begins.
  • Using boundary critique to challenge whose interests are included or excluded in a public policy simulation model.
  • Deciding when to use nominal group technique versus open dialogue to structure input in politically sensitive modeling projects.
  • Integrating qualitative interview data into causal loop diagrams without oversimplifying complex social dynamics.

Module 3: Causal Loop Diagramming and Feedback Analysis

  • Identifying dominant feedback loops in a customer retention model to prioritize intervention points.
  • Distinguishing between reinforcing and balancing loops in workforce attrition models where multiple loops interact.
  • Labeling link polarities in causal loops when intermediate variables are implicit or contested by stakeholders.
  • Managing model complexity by clustering variables into aggregates (e.g., "market confidence") without losing explanatory power.
  • Validating loop structures with historical data or expert judgment when quantitative calibration is not feasible.
  • Communicating delay effects in feedback loops to decision-makers who expect immediate results from policy changes.

Module 4: Stock-and-Flow Modeling and Dynamic Simulation

  • Defining stock units (e.g., full-time equivalents, backlog items) to ensure dimensional consistency in workforce planning models.
  • Specifying inflow and outflow structures for a product inventory model under intermittent supply disruptions.
  • Calibrating model parameters using historical throughput data when expert estimates are unreliable.
  • Implementing nonlinear functions (e.g., saturation effects) in adoption curves for new technology rollout simulations.
  • Testing model behavior under extreme conditions (e.g., zero hiring, sudden demand spike) to expose structural flaws.
  • Using sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters (e.g., training duration, attrition rate) most affect long-term outcomes.

Module 5: Model Validation and Confidence Building

  • Conducting extreme condition tests to verify that model behavior remains plausible under implausible inputs.
  • Comparing model outputs with historical trends to assess face validity in organizational change scenarios.
  • Using behavior pattern tests to check if the model reproduces known cycles (e.g., boom-bust in project staffing).
  • Documenting structural assumptions (e.g., fixed delay times) that limit model applicability to specific contexts.
  • Engaging skeptics in model walkthroughs to address concerns about omitted variables or oversimplified relationships.
  • Deciding when to halt refinement based on diminishing returns in predictive accuracy versus stakeholder understanding.

Module 6: Scenario Planning and Policy Testing

  • Designing policy levers (e.g., hiring caps, training investment) as adjustable parameters in a talent development model.
  • Running comparative simulations to evaluate the long-term impact of centralized versus decentralized decision-making.
  • Assessing unintended consequences of a new incentive scheme in a sales performance model over a 36-month horizon.
  • Communicating trade-offs between short-term cost savings and long-term system resilience in infrastructure investment models.
  • Using simulation results to identify policy resistance mechanisms, such as delayed feedback or goal erosion.
  • Structuring scenario narratives around exogenous shocks (e.g., regulatory change) to test adaptive capacity of the system.

Module 7: Integration with Organizational Decision Processes

  • Embedding system model outputs into existing management reporting dashboards without distorting interpretation.
  • Training operational managers to interpret simulation results without requiring modeling software proficiency.
  • Establishing review cycles to update models when organizational structure or key metrics change.
  • Negotiating data access for model calibration when departments treat performance metrics as confidential.
  • Defining ownership roles for model maintenance when multiple units rely on a shared supply chain simulation.
  • Archiving model versions and assumptions to support auditability and institutional memory.

Module 8: Ethical and Governance Dimensions of Systems Modelling

  • Disclosing model limitations when presenting simulation outcomes to executive decision-makers under time pressure.
  • Assessing whether a model reinforces existing power structures by privileging quantifiable over qualitative outcomes.
  • Managing consent and anonymity when incorporating individual performance data into organizational models.
  • Documenting assumptions about human behavior (e.g., rationality, compliance) that may embed bias into policy recommendations.
  • Resisting pressure to adjust model parameters to align with pre-determined strategic outcomes.
  • Establishing review protocols for models used in high-stakes decisions, such as workforce reduction or service closures.